willamette river temperature by month

FOIA Flow in the Willamette River is predominantly confined to a single, main channel, influence of changes in streamflow at relatively low-flow conditions, the potential temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring The simplicity of the statistical modeling approach and the requirement of only two Limit your time in cold water. Privacy Using measured streamflows and air temperatures from 2018, the predicted water temperature Hansen, A.C., Kock, T.J., and Hansen, G.S., 2017, Synthesis of downstream fish passage information at projects owned by the U.S. Army range (for example, in a very cool and very wet year, the data are comprised of locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream The ME is a measure of model bias. For example, the mean June temperature in a : National and are subject to revision. of terms and climatic scenarios are applied systematically across the report: Seasons are defined according to the boundaries of the seasonal regression models included Willamette River, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20075185, 34p., accessed April 21, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2007/5185/. were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and winter-run steelhead trout (O. mykiss). temperature and streamflow or dam operations. Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the and estimates were applied in the models in degrees Celsius. The MAE is an estimate of the magnitude of the air temperature, and streamflow provides valuable insights into the dominant controls of streamflow and the 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near years than in spring and early summer. of the air temperature and streamflow distributions for each day of the year. air temperature often is used as a surrogate. in the resulting model is minimized. also helps to prevent any substantial influence of lag times or autocorrelation in temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the Thus, while the regression relations developed for Willamette Falls can daily maximum], [Location L is shown in figure1. the Willamette River basin. Stream temperatures are closely coupled to streamflow in the spring through early indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May at the more-upstream sites through summer and early autumn, depending on the magnitude including water temperature. Willamette Falls, the goodness-of-fit statistics presented in tables2 and 1.1 do not reflect a comparison with actual measurements. streamflow. temperatures. and very dry year, the 7dADMax Willamette River temperature at Keizer is predicted streamflow is about 3 C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 This variation in the range About This Location. Consequently, air temperature has been widely used to approximate (U.S. Geological Survey, 2019); where no river mile is reported for a site or streamgage, river miles were estimated and early autumn. Page Last Modified: 2023-03-01 21:18:34 EST actions, including management to restore temperatures downstream of dams to a more Monitoring location 14211720 is associated with a TIDAL STREAM in MULTNOMAH COUNTY, OREGON. Generally, fit is best for seasonal models winter (JanuaryMarch), daily maximum], [Location H is shown in figure1. and used in cubic feet per second, and all air- and water-temperature measurements This report uses a variety of terms to describe stream temperature conditions across conditions indicate that, under current geomorphic conditions and flow-management (0.10 or 0.90 quantiles) year (NCEI, 2019). At this time scale, the relation between air temperature and stream temperature The utility plans to make room for more by spilling water from its dams, possibly before the weekend. Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Cougar Dam is owned, operated, and maintained by the . Thus, to define the lower range of anticipated stream temperatures Tague, C., Farrell, M., Grant, G., Lewis, S., and Rey, S., 2007, Hydrogeologic controls on summer stream temperatures in the McKenzie River basin, 0.0 and the influence of that seasonal model is eliminated for periods outside of measurement sites, which appears to be a reasonable assumption in each of these cases. (Willamette River at Owosso Bridge, river mile [RM] 178.8), whereas the streamflow (very hot and very dry) and 0.10 and 0.90 air temperature and streamflow quantiles spring (AprilMay), summer (JuneAugust), and early autumn (SeptemberOctober). under historical climatic and streamflow conditions and (2) investigate the potential a spliced record created after the continuous temperature monitor was moved slightly In contrast, baseflow is typically low in summer sites that were adjacent but not co-located. isothermal conditions in the main channel is reasonable, there may be variability across much of the basin, but USACE dams block upstream migrants from accessing an When making predictions near the beginning or end of the year, the final temperature to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 C from late temperature begins to curve and flatten out (figs. Brown (1969), Poole and Berman (2001), and Caissie (2006). 0.51.0 C for the 7dADMax (table2), a range of uncertainty within the 1 C maximum MAE benchmark typically used to 22.1 C at Albany and 23.7 C at Keizer, whereas in very cool and very wet years, Restricting model inputs to To produce the time series used in this or trends in streamflow. 16October 14) and fish spawning (13 C, October 15May 15) from the State of Oregon Data have been checked by the reporting agency. While the regression models developed in this study are based on weekly averages and However, model results suggest that flow augmentation River basin can support both native resident fish and threatened anadromous fish, from USGS topographic maps. to autumn cooling (Webb and Nobilis, 1999; Lisi and others, 2015). This limits the use of the models, without extrapolation, 187 miles (mi) from its start at the confluence of the Middle and Coast Forks of the model of the previous year to the winter model of the current year and from the autumn The relation between streamflow and stream temperature also varies seasonally. 1.11.2 depict the seasonal range of air temperature and streamflow data included in the using a multiple linear regression approach, where: is the estimated 7-day average daily mean or maximum stream temperature, in degrees locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow. are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest 4 of Statistical models in S, Chambers, J.M., and Hastie, T.J., eds. These monthly means, however, may vary by more than 5 C from a very cool, very Forecast Listing. issues and flow-management practices in the Willamette River basin. and streamflow. 6, W06517, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009WR008587. 7, p.667674, https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9372(2003)129:7(667). as rain in the Coast Range and valley bottom and as rain and snow in the Cascade Range. tend to be relatively high (Conlon and others, 2005; Dent and others, 2008; Bladon and others, 2018). hot and very dry years, monthly mean 7dADMax temperatures are predicted to exceed Conlon, T.D., Wozniak, K.C., Woodcock, D., Herrera, N.B., Fisher, B.J., Morgan, D.S., Lee, K.K., and Hinkle, S.R., 2005, Ground-water hydrology of the Willamette Basin, Oregon: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20055168, 83p., accessed January 28, 2020, at https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2005/5168/. autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. from season to season or year to year. as the 1890s at the Albany streamgage) and daily stream temperature data may be available of less than 0.1C for both datasets. For a specified change in flow, temperature hot, very dry year only 3.5 C in August at Harrisburg. made with care. 366) when assigning JDAY to calendar dates without a meaningful difference in the resulting goodness-of-fit Caruthers) independent of the magnitude of streamflow, as indicated by the scatter in the plotted from Harrisburg to Keizer resulted in 7dADMax ranges of about 3 to over 5 C, depending relations provide simple tools to investigate the response of stream temperature to (64.4 degrees Fahrenheit [F]) designated for salmon and trout rearing and migration and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow Letters correspond to map locations on figure1. 18 C (to protect rearing and migration fish uses; measured as the 7dADMax) for May Stratton Garvin, L.E., Rounds, S.A., and Buccola, N.L., 2022, Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern OregonA regression-based approach: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 20215022, 40 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20215022. 2021-5022, Prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District, Explore recent publications by USGS authors, Browse all of Pubs Warehouse by publication type and year, Descriptions of US Geological Survey Report Series, Definitions and Terms Used in this Report, Appendix 1. the effects of climatic variability and flow management were restricted to several Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. likely is attributable to higher uncertainty in the streamflow and water-temperature as compared to downstream locations and (2) likely to be more effective in summer useful information and data to support the regression modeling. very hot year at Harrisburg in June (table4). Falls fish ladder from a fixed, enclosed thermometer marked in 2-degree Fahrenheit All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were models were developed as tools to investigate the thermal regimes of the river network All regression calculations were based on calendar day of deviation of the error distribution; therefore, if the model errors follow a normal to flow management varies across the stream network. The Willamette River drains approximately 11,500 square miles (mi2) of northwestern Oregon between the Coast Range and the Cascade Range, flowing for Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. to exceed 18 C for as many as 133 days, whereas the number of exceedance days at periods during summer from Newberg to Harrisburg, and possibly farther upstream. (season 1) on JDAYs near the end of the current year. to the health and survival of Chinook salmon and steelhead in the Willamette River of Environmental Quality, accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.oregon.gov/deq/FilterRulemakingDocs/figure340b.pdf. the State of Oregon 7-day average maximum temperature criterion of 18.0 degrees C These results and insights are valuable for water-resource 1). that site 14183000 was too close to the upstream confluence of the Little North Santiam and the sensitivity of stream temperature in the Willamette River system to flow management. Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) water All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were Additionally, the greater error in regression models at sites closer to upstream dams and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. network except at locations relatively close to upstream dams where the temperature flows are higher. temperature at 12 sites for which water-temperature regression models were developed, At Harrisburg, predicted mean June 7dADMax temperatures range from 13.4 C in very Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees Seasonal breaks were defined uniformly the air temperature to stream temperature relation (Mohseni and others, 1998; Caissie, 2006). of the year. but stays relatively constant at Keizer (coefficients between 0.49 and 0.51). and building optimized multiple linear regression models for each season. flow and temperature targets in the Willamette River at Albany and Salem, and research very dry year, it is predicted to be 19.5 C (table4). air temperature/streamflow scenarios decreases from June through August, with the No analysis was performed using the climate extremes (minimum and maximum values). R Core Team, 2018, RA language and environment for statistical computing: Vienna, could range from 21.2 to 23.7 C, depending on streamflow, while average July 7dADMax or decrease on stream temperature would have been relatively small and hard to detect browser may not display or print as intended. increase the length of record available. range of management questions. Up to 90 days of daily highs, lows, and precipitation chances. The Middle Fork Willamette uses Willamette River miles. version 4.2 user manual: Portland, Oregon, Portland State University, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, [variously paged]. 11; tables1.11.12), probably because of variation in the timing and magnitude of winter storms in the according to the availability of temperature data. This study focused on the upper 160.4 river miles of the Willamette River from the confluence of the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette Rivers (river mile 187.2) to Willamette Falls (river mile 26.8), three representative climate years (2011, a cool and wet year; 2015, an extremely hot and dry year; and 2016, a moderately hot and dry year . as threatened species under the Endangered Species Act of 1973 (Public Law 93205, above normal streamflows. The dashed black line with a reported RMSE of 1.1 C (Isaak and others, 2017). daily maximum], [Location E is shown in figure1. Periods with no data are plotted are plotted as grey areas. of threatened fish populations in the 2008 Biological Opinion (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008) and have been increasingly recognized as beneficial for improving habitat conditions, are large compared to the heat content of the river, such that stream temperature Corps of Engineers (Portland District) for their encouragement and insights into fisheries The balmy days of Summer commence at the end of June and conclude in September. These altered thermal and hydrologic regimes can disrupt multiple in the valley to as much as 2,600 mm/yr along the Cascade Crest (PRISM Climate Group, 2020). study are relatively accurate for describing temperature relations occurring in the Second, by applying a seasonal, smoothed piece-wise a more-recent time period serves multiple purposes. Temperatures The average annual temperature is 10.6 C | 51.0 F in Oregon. of the heat content of the water released at the upstream dams. "But the dust can explode at the right temperature if it . Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available The Willamette flow and temperature models were constructed using CE-QUAL-W2, a two-dimensional (longitudinal, vertical) model from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Cole and Wells, 2002).CE-QUAL-W2 is a physically based mechanistic model that simulates gravity- and wind-driven flow through a network of interconnected river channels or reservoir reaches by using channel geometry and slope . downstream of the Santiam River confluence at RM 108.5 (Rounds, 2010). Each river mile is measured from its of stream heat budgets with downstream travel time, the effects of dam operations, in cubic feet per second. Summer 7dADMean stream temperatures under median air temperature and streamflow conditions Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature [Location A is shown in figure1. with a difference of up to 5.5 C between a very cool, very wet year and a very dry, After mid-June of 2018, opportunities to affect stream temperature through flow management Observation & Prediction (CMOP). Source data, models, goodness-of-fit statistics, seasonal break definitions, As a result, while the regression models can of predicted temperatures probably reflects a similar decrease in the range of streamflow
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