lake powell water level forecast 2022

The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). Were an initiative of theCenter for Environmental Journalismat the University of Colorado Boulder. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. google_ad_height = 600; Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. The picture was much different 59 years ago, when the giant storage reservoir on the Colorado River was filling, its electricity helping power the West and the revenue from its power sales helping fund endangered fish protection programs across the Colorado River Basin. Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Sunday, February 26, 2023 12:00:00 AM Level is 178.87 feet The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. But the 30-year period is the standard reference worldwide and captures more variability, according to Paul Miller of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. But generally below-normal precipitation the last several months after a very wet December.. Water managers, who . An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. 2022, a day after Southern California delared a water . Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. In March 2022, it fell below a critical level of 3,525 feet above sea levelthe lake's target elevation. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Significant amounts of snowfall over the winter of 20102011 meant more water for Lake Powell, and this effect lasted into the spring of 2012. 0 We are 37% through the Water Year. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". It can store about five times the average annual flow. 159 0 obj <> endobj He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. There is approximately an 80 percent probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. CNN's Bill Weir has more. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. The Water Desk launched in April 2019 with support from the Walton Family Foundation. //-->, Printable Version Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. Part of the Glen Canyon Conservancy Family, Utah D.O.T Charles Hall Ferry for UT Route 276. 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; Gas Prices on Lake The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream Glen Canyon Dam currently maintains 30 mw (approximately 800 cfs) of generation capacity in reserve in order to respond to a system emergency even when generation rates are already high. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Lake Powell is now at a historic low. We are 41% through the Water Year. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; (2007). Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. Lake Mead's water levels . google_ad_width = 160; Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section). google_color_link = "0000FF"; water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. 15 Day Weather Forecast Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. What's the weather forecast for 2050? The critical issue is how to maintain the lake at 3,525, which marks an elevation that is the top of the liquid buffer zone designed to protect the lakes mighty electricity turbines. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Human actions created the Salton Sea, Californias largest lake heres Scientists studying water supply focus on weeks following peak snowpack. 15 Day Weather Forecast Together with the release of more water into Lake Powell from an upstream dam, the decision will keep the lake at a level at which it can continue generating hydropower for the next 12 months. According to the Bureau of Reclamation's website (on March 22, 2022), Lake While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). %%EOF Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. The Bureau of Reclamation announced on May 3, 2022, two separate urgent drought response actions that will help prop up Lake Powell by nearly 1 million acre-feet (maf) of water over the next 12 months (May 2022 through April 2023). The sediment-filled Colorado River appeared green-brown. n$L{Z. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . According to Jay Lund, vice director for the Center for Watershed Sciences and a professor at the University of California, the long-term average use in the lower Colorado River Basin exceeds the long-term flow of water, meaning the only solution is to "substantially reduce water use" in the basin. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . The August 2022 24-Month Study modeled 2023 and 2024 operations at Lakes Powell and Mead as if the 0.480 maf had been delivered to Lake Mead for operating tier/condition purposes both for the U.S. Lower Basin and for Mexico. These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. It wasnt just the Powell number that dipped, although the amount of runoff that makes its way to Powell each year is considered a good barometer for conditions basinwide. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 SW Satellite Weather https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. "We might get lucky with the weather, but the idea of the system recovering is really hard unless you reduce water use in that basin," Lund told Newsweek. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam can also fluctuate beyond scheduled releases when called upon to respond to unscheduled power outages or power system emergencies. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. . For more information on the tools we use, consult, Upper Colorado Mainstem Specific Site Forecasts. The basin states, in a response letter, expressed concern that the water level of Lake Powell would decline below critical elevations, making the dam inoperable. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. endstream endobj startxref Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted simultaneously in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powells water levels. A Tier 3 shortage would impact the amount of . Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. //-->, Printable Version The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. New 1991-2020 Averages being used this year. The DROA coordination will continue until either (i) the minimum probable projected elevation remains above 3,525 feet for 24 months or (ii) the process moves to the next step when the most probable projected elevation indicates Powell elevations below 3,525 feet and a Drought Response Operations Plan is developed. google_color_text = "000000"; Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Flight Center. But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. In the early years of this image series, water levels began to drop. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. %PDF-1.7 % By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. This is the big warning bell.. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). To view the 2023 progession of snowpack above Lake Powell, click on Lake Powell Snow Chart. KNAUs Melissa Sevigny reports. By Leia Larsen. hbbd``b`$WX)! Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. hb```)," "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? Last Reading: 3522.33 on Feb 12, 2023. With low-runoff conditions and . After decades of drought, the water level in Lake Powell has sunk to unimaginable lows, threatening millions of people who rely on the water supply. 0.523 maf in Lake Powell from December 2022 through April 2023. Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. This was the lowest water levels have been since the lake was first constructed in the 1930s. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Much of that water. The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Previous forecasts showed this was possible and the Bureau of Reclamation announced on March 4 that a . System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. | March 17, 2022, 6:57 a.m. As predicted, southern Utah's Lake Powell has fallen below a critical level that soon could threaten its ability . 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