7 Financial systems can include formal banking, informal systems, online value storage transfer systems, or cash couriers.
In this sense, power and policy are intertwined. This pattern is reversed in the Middle East and North Africa, where all publics but Israel rate their economic relationships with China more positively.
(+1) 202-419-4300 | Main ), Next Generation National Security Fellows, The Shawn Brimley Next Generation National Security Leaders Fellowship, Joseph S. Nye, Jr. National Security Internship and Mentoring Program, 2022 CNAS National Security Conference: Security in the Balance, Opec's Surprise Cut: Is the Global Economy Ready, The Lawfare Podcast: A New Sanctions Approach for Humanitarian Assistance, Sound On: Foreign Tech Ban, Jan 6 Tape, Tim Ryan on Energy. Image credit: Justin Sullivan / Getty Images, By Threatened countries will likely experience a growing sense of urgency to respond to Chinese economic coercion.
But in South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of influence.
Global integration is defined by Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 3100.01D and the Summary of the 2018 National Defense Strategy of the United States of America as the arrangement of cohesive joint force actions in time, space, and purpose, executed as a whole to address transregional, multifunctional challenges across all domains through the seamless integration of multiple elements of national powerdiplomacy, information, economics, finance, intelligence, law enforcement and military.6 The concept addresses the importance of a unified effort across all elements of national power and could provide a framework to incorporate global integration for the commander and planners to truly leverage all government agencies strengths, achieve military objectives, and ultimately protect national interests. About two-thirds saying that ties are good and about a third disagreeing potential! 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WebNational Power (CNP) approach, it will show that China is deliberately increasing power across of broad spectrum of instruments in an attempt to challenge the US.
These various ways can be understood to occur across a continuum of conflict ranging from peace to war. The preliminary definitions addressed for the finance, intelligence, and law enforcement instruments provide a solid starting point to incorporate and update joint doctrine related to strategy, concepts, and planning. endobj The U.S. and its allies need to start planning for alternative scenarios to Chinas linear development.
However, there is little explicit information on the new IOPs and even less guidance regarding the potential application of a more granular conception of IOPs in a competitive environment. This is probably most evident in the developing world, particularly Africa.
Tunisians also see Chinese influence as more positive than negative, but by a smaller margin. Though economic coercion is one of many facets of Chinese economic statecraft, U.S. policymakers must better understand it.
Read our research on: Congress | Economy | Gender. For too long Chinese economic coercion has escaped sustained scrutiny. These actions tend to be broader in scope and political in nature as they impact entire nations. As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power.
The key U.S. organizations for the legal aspect are the Department of State and Department of Justice, which provide legal expertise for national and international law while working with partner-nation justice departments to achieve an understanding of key legal issues. In 2017, the United States targeted North Koreas ability to generate funds by potentially suspending U.S. correspondent account access to any foreign bank that knowingly conducts or facilitates significant transactions tied to trade with North Korea or certain designated persons.14 In 2018, the restoration of sanctions on Iran targeted financial institutions, companies, and individuals tied to Irans shipping, financial, and energy sectors, resulting in 700 additional companies and individuals on the sanction rolls, causing concern from the Iranian public and flaming potential unrest toward the regime.15. Still, publics are relatively divided, as no more than half name either country as the top economy in most countries. In each instance, data for all countries in which the question was asked will be reported, though this may include only a subset of the 34 countries.
Opinions elsewhere are more clear-cut. Currently, doctrine and planning emphasize the DIME model.2 The scant literature on IOPs mentions the addition of FIL, but the focus has been its application to combating terrorism. (f C3 endstream endobj 627 0 obj <>stream Financial. WebWithout power, a nation has no means to implement its plan to achieve its objectives. Views of the balance of power between U.S. and China, Chinas Economic Growth Mostly Welcomed in Emerging Markets, but Neighbors Wary of Its Influence, Majorities in most countries see both U.S. and China heavily influencing their domestic economies, More describe Chinese influence on economy as positive than say the same of U.S. influence, Most say current economic relations with both China and U.S. are good, Appendix: Factors that influence views of China, Many in Western Europe and U.S. Want Economic Changes as Pandemic Continues, In the pandemic, Indias middle class shrinks and poverty spreads while China sees smaller changes, The Pandemic Stalls Growth in the Global Middle Class, Pushes Poverty Up Sharply, In Taiwan and across the region, many support closer economic ties with both U.S. and mainland China, U.S. is seen as a top ally in many countries u2013 but others view it as a threat, By more than two-to-one, Americans support U.S. government banning TikTok, U.S. journalists beats vary widely by gender and other factors, About a third of U.S. workers who can work from home now do so all the time, About 5% of young adults in the U.S. say their gender is different from their sex assigned at birth.
22 Erik Rosenbach and Aki J. Peritz, Intelligence and International Cooperation, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, July 2009, available at
Chinese use of economic coercion is likely to shape U.S. policy options in Asia and constrain both U.S. policymakers and companies maneuverability globally. ), as well as intelligence disciplines.18 The products are typically intelligence estimates and assessments that are often broken down into categories and could be in the form of written documents or verbal presentations, hardcopy publications, or electronic media.19 Organizations can be broken down into Department of Defense (DOD) agencies, other national agencies, foreign agencies, host-nation or local sources, and corporations.
Under the current DIME construct, the diplomatic and military IOPs legal efforts are not sufficient and are extremely complex.
All of the cases studied where China acted alone involve China using economic coercion against democratic countries, and Beijing generally targets politically influential constituencies capable of pushing for policy change, regardless of whether or not the targeted constituency has any involvement in the policy to which China objects.
The measures may also have long-term effects in deterring and shaping countries foreign policy interests that go well beyond the short-term economic costs.
Webconventional military forces, potential adversaries have developed strategies to use the information domain to project soft power to counter.
Xi has made clear that under his continued leadership, China will take a more assertive posture abroad. Private-sector actors should understand their exposure to Chinese economic coercion and limit their vulnerabilities through supply chain redundancy and market diversification. International law and international law enforcement are key capabilities for defeating terrorist and adversary networks that span multiple national boundaries. 12 Craig W. Mastapeter, The Instruments of National Power: Achieving the Strategic Advantage in a Changing World, Masters thesis, Naval Postgraduate School, 2008, 237240.
Distinctly, the focus of the information IOP is to affect decisionmaking in the cognitive, informational, and physical dimensions of the target audiencewhether friendly, neutral, or adversaryto create a desired effect.21 For example, the intelligence IOP may provide the critical information necessary for the commander to make a decision whereas the information IOP would help to create a desired effect in the target audience. In terms of resources, China looks like a colossal land of milk and honey. Finally, the report sheds light on the Chinese policy interests that trigger Beijings use of economic coercion. Last year, an unprecedented $150.5 billion in two-way trade occurred between China and Brazil, and China is also engaged in similar activities with other nations, such as Russia and Pakistan. <> Substantial minorities in most countries did not offer any opinion of Chinas influence. xko8{}"JD ,CGu~"mInu$r8CMbm6zbg6rf~?~~l>fMYGoN7'g,R 2")#Q" *d=I%GdCSJzhze12EY#uEg N`e0J2Orxy|2"?T8\&LRc| Still, Lithuanians are 23 percentage points more likely to see the U.S. as the top economy.
Unlike other IOPs, the legal IOP is complex, incredibly diverse, and rapidly changing over short periods of time.
WebThe military instrument of national power can be used in a wide variety of ways that vary in purpose, scale, risk, and combat intensity. Today, one of President Xi Jinpings central foreign policy initiatives, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), is a potentially trillion-dollar testament to Beijings commitment to using loans, infrastructure projects, and other economic measures as foreign policy tools.
As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. And few consider Japan or the countries of the European Union as the leading economic power. China has punished countries that undermine its territorial claims and foreign policy goals with measures such as restricting trade, encouraging popular boycotts, and cutting off tourism. China wants to be the dominant economic and military power of the world, spreading its authoritarian vision for society and its corrupt practices worldwide. And, when comparing economic ties to the U.S. and to China, many publics have a sanguine view of their current economic relationship with both superpowers. 21 JP 3-13, Information Operations (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, November 27, 2012, Incorporating Change 1, November 20, 2014), available at
endobj These various ways can be understood to occur across a continuum of conflict ranging from peace to war. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%). There are many key mission partners involved with the law enforcement IOP that include national, international, and foreign legal departments and law enforcement agencies. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. This sense is highest among Israelis, 96% of whom say American-Israeli economic ties are positive. Perceived influence is highest in South Korea (96%), Japan (94%) and Israel (88%), and lowest in Indonesia the only country where fewer than half (45%) say the U.S. plays a large role in their economic affairs.
Likewise, more see the U.S. than China as the top economy in all three sub-Saharan African countries surveyed, though the publics are largely divided.
Alex Zerden. In the Middle East and North Africa, majorities in all except Turkey say the economic relationship between their country and China is going well. 626 0 obj <>stream
In the past decade, China has expanded its set of such economic instruments to include sticks, not just carrots. 19 Some example categories include warning intelligence, current intelligence, target intelligence, estimative intelligence, counterintelligence, and so forth. As Chinas economic growth slows and the country enters a new phase in its development, marginal adaptation is no longer sufficient. WebPower is not simply what resources a country has at its disposal. In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as As the prospect of material gain now looks less promising, nationalism and repression are the most likely instruments of choice for the party to maintain its monopoly on power. But, in much of the Asia-Pacific region, people are more likely to evaluate the U.S. economic influence positively than the Chinese, or at least to see them comparably.
These various ways can be understood to occur across a continuum of conflict ranging from peace to war. )Ufo~K&yJxh:Ox#zzY/u A%UhW3e/30' 8xt+fjfk8l\[Eu X *, 2:Q>2nTX3zql[
But in South Korea and Japan, upwards of nine-in-ten say both superpowers have a great deal of influence. More than two-thirds in each of the sub-Saharan African countries surveyed describe current economic ties with both China and the U.S. as good, and around half or more say the same in each of the Latin American countries surveyed. These actions have caused significant economic damage to U.S. partners such as Japan and South Korea. 6 Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Instruction 3100.01D, Joint Strategic Planning System (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, July 20, 2018), A-1, available at
Incorporating partners early into planning will garner mutual trust and buy-in from partners who have a better understanding of their particular instruments. <> Economic coercion will be part of this.
Similarly, citing national security concerns, Australia, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom have all joined an unprecedented global backlash against Chinese capital. Dr. Valbona Zeneli, Marshall Centers professor of National Security Studies, talks about Crime and Corruption, August 12, 2016, during Program on Countering Transnational Organized Crime (George C. Marshall European
Laying out the instruments of national power and distinguishing between hard and soft approaches is essential to evaluating a grand strategy and proposing the use of instruments to countervail a competing state. 2 0 obj
In this sense, power and policy are intertwined. The instrument choices are impactful since resources are not unlimited and since each instrument consumes a varying amount of "Xi has made clear that under his continued leadership, China will take a more assertive posture abroad. 5 Capstone Concept for Joint Operations: Joint Force 2020 (Washington, DC: The Joint Staff, September 10, 2012), 4, available at The U.S. Government has 17 national agencies with different mission sets utilized for intelligence-sharing and cooperation. Having a solid understanding of the key mission partners and their strengths across the DIME-FIL will enable commanders and planners to develop more creative plans that share the mission, tasks, and successes through a whole-of-government, international, and interorganizational approach. Intelligence will need to emphasize attribution to identify criminal cyber and proxy actors that enable financial and law enforcement instruments to act. Beijings use of coercive measures is growing in frequency and evolving in scope.
The National Security Strategy for Combatting Terrorism identified the importance of affecting financial systems used by terrorist organizations that support their survival and continued operations.7 In relation to violent extremist organizations (VEOs), the financial IOP is characterized as the specific means by which insurgents acquire and distribute capital, whether via formal or informal banking and monetary exchange systems.8 The routine use, success, and precision of the financial IOP over the past two decades prove that it is an essential addition to DIME. 20 Mastapeter, The Instruments of National Power, 228. A disruption of funding for a target entity can be achieved through compelling private banking institutions to deny currency loans or credit; blacklisting individuals, corporations, or states; utilizing financial sanctions; or freezing assets.12 Disruptions are made possible because of U.S. worldwide dominance in the financial sector. Generally, the financial instrument should be understood as the denial of access to specified individuals or groups from a formal or informal financial system, network, or source of funding. In the past decade, China has expanded its set of such economic instruments to include sticks, not just carrots. 9 The relationship with the state or organization could be adversarial, neutral, or friendly. The increased understanding of the FIL IOPs allows the joint community to update doctrine, synchronize, and involve mission partners early in planning and perform in the competitive environment, ultimately achieving unity of effort and effectively protecting national interests. Despite how long the DIME has been used for describing the instruments of national power, U.S. policymakers and strategists have long understood that there are many more instruments involved in national security policy development and implementation.
About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world.
The intelligence IOP involves many mission partners, all with varying and important missions articulated in the following categories: national agencies, allied partners and agencies, host-nation resources, and private sources.
Shows of force or military adventurism are thus possible consequences of Chinas slowing growth. Its bureaucracy is robust and its political elites have a conscious plan to expand national power, a vision encapsulated in Xi Jinpings China dream. But the nations capacity to convert these resources into tangible forms of usable civilian and military power is hindered by a contradiction in terms between the essence of power in the 21st centuryinspirational, technologically advanced, outward-looking, and innovatingand the intrinsic nature of the regime currently governing China. In this capacity, she publ Former Researcher, Energy, Economics, & Security Program. Webconventional military forces, potential adversaries have developed strategies to use the information domain to project soft power to counter. When comparing the two superpowers, by a slim margin, more people in the Asia-Pacific region say China plays a large role in their countrys economic conditions (six-country median of 78%) than say the same of the U.S. (74%).
3 0 obj In particular, potential adversaries such as China and Russia, have developed new techniques such as The intelligence instrument delivers decision advantage through activities, products, and organizations, mainly through national and international intelligence agencies, enabling value-added data for the rest of the IOPs. Across the Middle East and North African countries surveyed, most publics are more likely to see U.S. economic influence unfavorably, even as Israelis almost uniformly describe Americas role as good (82% positive).
In 2014, the U.S. dollar was involved in 87 percent of the worlds foreign exchange transactions, proof of its ability to influence financial institutions to comply.13 The intelligence IOP often pairs with the financial to detect and contain, and then the financial IOP deters and disrupts target adversary individuals or groups. In the Asia-Pacific countries surveyed, South Koreans, Japanese and Australians are especially likely to say China has a great deal or fair amount of influence on their countrys economy, with about nine-in-ten or more holding this opinion. Webconventional military forces, potential adversaries have developed strategies to use the information domain to project soft power to counter. Emily Kilcrease. Some logical publications to address the gap by defining, explaining, or listing the FIL IOPs are Joint Doctrine Note 1-18, Strategy; Joint Publication (JP) 1, Doctrine for the Armed Forces of the United States; JP 3-08, Interorganizational Cooperation; and the Joint Concept for Integrated Campaigning.
Additionally, peer competitors increasingly use proxy, cyber, and criminal actors. At first glance, the financial and economic IOPs appear similar; however, they are fundamentally different in scope, enabling instruments, and associated activities. 8 Carl Priechenfried, Untying Our Hands: Untying Cyber as an Instrument of National Power, Masters thesis, Joint Advanced Warfighting School, 2017, available at
Power sets the parameters on each action or set of actions between political entities. This chapter examines the foundations of Chinas national power: its national resources, national performance, and military capabilities.
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